It is raining cats, dogs, and just about everything else outside right now. 0.65 inches now total on roof of Boyd Science Center, though I suspect more has fallen in total.
As of 9 AM EDT, Plymouth has seen about 0.50 inches of rain measured on the top of Boyd Science Center. Still over an inch is expected to fall in the next 24 hours before it clears out an is very nice tomorrow.
Also interesting tid-bit, 2009 has been a colder and wetter than normal through September in New Hampshire, as evidenced here: http://bit.ly/1jM8jR and here: http://bit.ly/4cXZ4F
Changed theme over to P2 to have more quick updates. Trying this out. In other news, a lot of rain this weekend: http://bit.ly/1hU8yC
One of the things that limits meteorologists the most when it comes to forecasting is the number and quality of observations being taken at any given time. While there are thousands of observation stations around the United States, the number of stations is greatly outweighed by the population density of the country. In many areas, especially as we move further west, the density of observations greatly decreases, and we lose much of what we need when it comes to the detail about what storms are doing (especially in the amount of precipitation).
This is where CoCoRaHS comes in. CoCoRaHS is a non-profit organization that allows citizens to observe and report precipitation amounts, hail and snow to the cocorahs.org website, which assymilates the data and allows for the viewing of observations related to storms that may have passed through the area otherwise un-noticed. For meteorologists, this is a great resource that allows the adjustment of precipitation prediction for a storm, or possibly even a warning related to hail, heavy snow, or flooding rains.
As of July 1 2009, CoCoRaHS will be launching in New Hampshire, allowing for new observations of areas which, before now, may have been unobservable. If you are interested in joining CoCoRaHS, see www.cocorahs.org. For NH residents interested in joining: http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nh
For NH residents interested, you will need:
Good Luck! And happy observing!
Over the past weekend, most of New England finally got a nice taste of warmer weather. However, that was short lived, as snow and cooler temperatures moved into the region on Sunday night and Monday. The general area cleared out a bit today with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for most of the region.
Snowfall Amounts from Monday's storm
Following the slight warm-up tonight, things look to be more unsettled for Tueday night into Wednesday. There is a chance of some frozen precipitation for the evening into early morning tomorrow before rain should take over for the day on Wednesday. Any snow and sleet accumulation should be an inch or less, and rain should persist with warmer air moving in overnight.
So here is the forecast for tonight into Thursday:
Tuesday Night: Chance of Snow and Sleet, changing to rain towards morning. Low near 29 F. Winds from the south at about 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Rain Likely, persisting throughout the day. High temperature near 36 F. Winds from the southwest at 5-10 mph gusting to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Clearing, with a low of 20 F. Winds from the west/northwest at 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 38 F. Winds from the west at 10-15 mph.
Finally, the snow depth around New England is gradually decreasing. In Plymouth to date, we have accumulated over 100 inches of snow this season. The current snow depth is shown on the image below.
Snow Depth as of 3/10/09
It is interesting to think, but how often do people actually view the weather forecasts provided for free. If the National Weather Service did not provide a free service, would you be willing to pay for a forecast that could possibly save your life? For an interesting take on this see this blog post
Another developing winter storm is bearing down on New England, looking to bring more snow and freezing precipitation to the New Hampshire area. Overall, the storm does not look like a blockbuster, but should be enough to bring moderate to heavy snowfall to the area. Accumulations look to mainly occur overnight, with the heaviest snow occuring between midnight and 10 AM. It does not look like the heaviest snow will occur over New Hampshire, but more than likely over coastal Maine.
After the storm, clouds and snow showers may stick around for a couple days, aided by cold air at upper levels. The cloudiness looks to break up a bit more during the weekend, with the highest chance at clearer skies on the weekend coming Saturday. Things look to cloud up again Sunday, with a chance at a bit more snow before improving conditions on Monday.
For overall accumulations for the storm, using a blend of the models, the most liquid equivalent for the storm seems to be somewhere right around 1 inch. This brings us to the hard part. Two models, the NAM and the European model, seem to be holding to a colder situation, which would bring more lighter and fluffier snowfall amounts. The GFS brings warmer temperatures further inland, leading to lesser accumulations and heavier, more wet snow. Thus, the predicament is this: which model will handle the situation correctly. Overall, the blend of the three models seems more helpful and likely. Also, I would tend more towards the warmer solution, only because of the lack of really cold arctic air in place for the storm to overcome. This leads me to expect somewhere between 6-9 inches of snow for this storm tonight into tomorrow.
Forecast through Friday for Plymouth, NH:
Tonight: Increasing clouds and developing snow. Low around 26 F. Winds from the East at about 5-10 mph. New snow accumulations between 5-7 inches.
Tomorrow: Snow, accumulating 1-2 inches, ending before noon. Winds from the East becoming NW at 5 – 10 mph. High of 35 F
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy, with a chance of snow showers. Winds for the west at 5 mph. Low of 20 F
Friday: Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Winds from the west at 5 – 10 mph. High of 34 F.
Its been a while. Classes are starting to pick up, and with working and such, its becoming increasingly hard to sit down and find some time to actually forecast. However, weekends are generally a great time to get to sit down and look at maps, so here is the weekend forecast. Hopefully, we are looking at a warmup next week, with perhaps some rain at the end of the week. That remains to be seen, and is an awful long way off to be trying to forecast.
Temperatures this week finally climbed above freezing. It had been about 28-30 days since the last time that happened. The last distinct memory of being above freezing was at the end of December, when temperatures reached into the upper 50s and 60s across New England. Following that, temperatures have been below freezing in New Hampshire and most of New England until earlier this week. Finally, some signs of spring, contrary to Puxatawney Phil this year.
Anyways, here we go again:
Friday: From an early morning cold start, things should being to warm up quickly. High of 19 F, with winds from the west at 5 – 10 mph. Partly to Mostly Sunny.
Friday Night: Mostly clear and cold, with winds from the northwest diminishing overnight. Low of -5 F.
Saturday: Beautiful sunny skies for the day, with temperatures climbing above freezing to 40 F. Winds from the southwest at about 5 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly to Mostly, with a chance of snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected. Low of 25 F. Winds from the west at about 5 mph.
Sunday: Partly to Mostly cloudy, with some snow/rain showers throughout the day. Little to no accumulation expected. High of 40 F. Winds from the west at 5 – 10 mph.
Have a nice weekend!
Looking back at the snowstorm this week, its kinda hard to imagine that the past two winters have been the bulk of the snow that I have seen in Plymouth. It’s beginning to feel old. We tend to sink into a pattern where we are affected by 2-3 storms per week as the upper levels continue to throw shortwave troughs towards the east coast. We sink into these patterns in what we can call a normal winter. This winter could be classified as a much more normal winter than years past. My first two years in Plymouth, we received little more than 1-2 feet of snow for the winter. Very often, we we stuck in the rain portion of storms, and we were pretty much always adversely affected by the downsloping off of the surrounding mountains.
I awoke this morning to about 13 inches of fluffy white snow outside. The University itself is quite the mess. Honestly, there is no where to put the snow anymore. They have been trucking the snow out of here in dump trucks with a giant hopper blowing the snow into them to be driven away. All around, towns have almost exhausted their snow removal and maintenance budgets. It may be interesting with about 2 months of winter left. We know the storms will keep coming, the question will be how much of an impact will each one bring.
Moving on to the forecast for the next few days into Sunday Morning. Things look like they will calm down a bit, perhaps giving us one of the longest storm-less breaks of the season since December. Temperatures may climb above freezing for the first time in what feels like an incredibly long period of time. And now….the forecast:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, winds light and variable. Low of 10 F.
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with winds from the W/NW at 5 – 10 mph. Chance of snow showers. No accumulation expected. High of 30 F.
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy, with winds from the W at 5 mph. Chance of snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected. Low of 13 F.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with winds from the west at 5 – 10 mph. Chance of snow showers. Little to no accumulation expected. High of 22 F.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy skies clearing through the night. Winds light and variable. Low of 2 F.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds from the W/NW at 5 mph. High of 33 F.
-Enjoy the weekend